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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still